Kearney Forecasts a $937 Billion Beauty-Wellness Market

Kearney forecasts that beauty, health and wellness will form a $937 billion global market growing more than 5% a year, with services increasing 7% annually, according to its 2027 Beauty Outlook, released Nov. 4, 2026.

The report draws on a June 2026 survey of 2,500 beauty consumers in France, the United Kingdom, China, Japan and the United States, supplemented by market sizing and category analysis. Europe is the largest beauty market, followed by the United States and Asia, while fragrance is the fastest-growing category at 10%.

Kearney values beauty products at $430 billion, a market that has grown 6% annually for four consecutive years. Services grow faster, account for more than half of global beauty spending and pull health and wellness into the same commercial ecosystem.

Fragmentation is accelerating faster than growth

Kearney’s central finding is that the industry is shifting faster than its top-line growth. Players from adjacent categories want a larger share, the competitive frontier keeps expanding and beauty brands can use partner ecosystems to cross geographic limits. Social media also reduces the advantage of established distribution, creating a more level playing field for awareness.

Meaningful financial and strategic investments occurred in 2026, particularly in wellness, and Kearney expects that pattern to continue. The report organizes its outlook around six shifts: fragmentation, wellness absorption, a larger service share of spending, AI-led discovery, advocacy-led commerce and proof-driven product loyalty.

What consumers expect from beauty

Consumers were twice as likely to use beauty for wellness as for self-expression. They increasingly judge offerings by efficacy over time, including whether a product supports objectives such as a stronger skin barrier, denser hair or better sleep.

The report identifies four distinct category shifts:

• Makeup use is moving in different directions in each market.
• Skincare is moving rapidly from mainstream topicals toward clinically vetted protocols.
• Fragrance is expanding among traditional and niche brands, as well as from lifestyle brands outside the category.
• Haircare represents the industry’s clearest unmet need.

“Beauty is expanding well beyond products to services, health, and wellness, and this changing equation has critical implications for brands,” said Tatiana Perim, Kearney partner, global and Americas lead of beauty and personal care, and report co-author.

Perim said consumers may purchase a serum, a facial and a sleep supplement with the same combined objective: better skin, more energy and healthier aging. Brands must connect those offerings rather than treat them as separate purchases.

“Feeling good in their skin is more important than looking good on the surface,” said Kearney principal and report co-author Abhinav Konda. He said consumers judge “serious” beauty by delivery and sustained efficacy, not only by how a product looks in the moment.

What changes for clinical and aesthetic practices?

More than half of monthly beauty spending went to services in four of five studied markets. Outside Japan, clinical and aesthetic services have become monthly habits as consumers seek expert guidance; more than a third of consumers use these formats monthly.

The United States over-indexed on clinical and recovery formats. Monthly use reached 47% for both cosmetic dermatology and IV therapy, while medspa use reached 43%. China led on every service measure, while Japan sat below all four other markets on every service. Consumers who use these services skew younger and more affluent.

For clinical practices, the clearest signal is recurring monthly demand, not proof that any particular intervention works. The consumer survey does not report clinical outcomes, safety or reimbursement for cosmetic dermatology, IV therapy or medspa services.

How AI and advocates change discovery

Brands no longer lead consumers’ assessment of their needs. Advocates increasingly translate science, introduce concerns and normalize routines through voices consumers already trust. AI is moving further into the discovery process, becoming infrastructure that determines which brands consumers consider at all.

The channels that explain a need and evaluate a solution are also beginning to capture the sale. Confidence, curation and convenience still determine the final purchase, but AI increasingly hosts the transaction itself.

TikTok Shop’s success in the United States over the past 24 months, and its continued momentum, indicate that social and affiliate commerce models long successful in China can achieve scale and prominence in Western markets.

Product loyalty now exceeds brand loyalty in every studied market, and credible proof has become the price of entry. Proof-driven consumers may consider a product without extending trust to an entire brand range. Brands therefore need visible, provable efficacy across their assortments, supported by both scientific credibility and emotional connection.

The strategic risks ahead

Perim said winning brands must connect products with services, science with advocacy and physical stores with AI-mediated customer journeys. Her warning is equally direct: as brands use AI for concepting, claims development and creative production, optimization around the same AI-legible proof points could make competing products look alike.

Kearney also launched its 2026 beauty and personal care M&A report, which examines the latest dealmaking dynamics, record global deal volumes, the growing role of financial buyers and the United Kingdom’s position as a leading market.

Looking ahead to 2027, the report expects service-led growth and AI-mediated advocacy to define competition, while visible efficacy remains the test consumers apply to the brands they keep.